The Great Replacement theory

What it is

The Great Replacement is the claim that white populations in Europe and the United States are being deliberately replaced by non-white immigrants, and that the end result is the extinction of the white race. ¹ The phrase belongs to the French writer and critic Renaud Camus, who published an essay called "Le Grand Remplacement" in 2011. ¹ The ADL traces the underlying idea further back, to early twentieth century French nationalism and the books of Maurice Barres, and notes that Camus appears to have drawn on Jean Raspail's novel "The Camp of the Saints." ¹ The AJC dates the current version to the same 2011 work, which argued that Muslims in France were destroying French civilization and culture. ²⁶

Camus wrote about Muslim immigration to Europe and about birth rates. His original argument did not center on Jews, and the ADL says plainly that it was not antisemitic in its initial form. ¹ The white supremacist movement then adopted the phrase because it fit a claim they already held, that the white race faces engineered destruction, the idea they call white genocide. ¹ It also echoed their oldest slogan, the fourteen words: "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children." ¹

Since many white supremacists in the United States blame Jews for non-white immigration, the theory is now bound up with antisemitism. ¹ The AJC's definition states the American version directly: an intentional effort, led by Jews, to promote mass non-white immigration and intermarriage in order to bring about the "extinction of whites." ²

The night before the Unite the Right rally in August 2017, white supremacists marching across the University of Virginia campus shouted "Jews will not replace us" and "You will not replace us." ¹ Both organizations identify those chants as references to Camus's theory. ¹²

In October 2018, Robert Bowers killed 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh after posting on Gab that Jews were bringing non-white immigrants and refugees into the country. ¹ In March 2019, Brenton Tarrant livestreamed himself killing 51 people at two mosques in New Zealand and released a manifesto titled "The Great Replacement," named for Camus's work. ¹ In April 2019, John Earnest killed one person and injured three at a synagogue in Poway, California, and in a letter posted online claimed Jews were responsible for the genocide of "white Europeans," citing the influence of Bowers and Tarrant. ¹ In August 2019, Patrick Crusius killed 23 people at a Walmart in El Paso and wrote of a "Hispanic invasion" with reference to the same theory. ¹ The AJC adds the May 2022 attack in Buffalo to the list of killings for which belief in the Great Replacement has been cited as motive. ²⁶

Why it still matters

Two of those attacks were on synagogues, one was on mosques, one was on Hispanic shoppers, and one was on Black shoppers in Buffalo. ¹² The civil rights strategist Eric Ward, quoted by the AJC on Buffalo, said African Americans were killed because they were Black, but the story that drove the killer was that he was at war with the Jewish community. ²⁷

The theory is no longer confined to the far right. The ADL documents Heinz-Christian Strache endorsing it while campaigning for Austria's Freedom Party in April 2019, Marine Le Pen promoting the idea in France, and Martin Sellner of Generation Identitaire pushing it as a leading voice of the Identitarian movement. ¹ In the United States, then-Representative Steve King tweeted in March 2017 that "we can't restore our civilization with somebody else's babies," and gave an interview to a far-right Austrian magazine in August 2018 promoting the theory. ¹ On Fox News in October 2018, Laura Ingraham described Democrats "who want to replace you, the American voters, with newly amnestied citizens." ¹ Tucker Carlson said on air that the Democratic Party is "trying to replace the current electorate," and added, "Let's just say it. That's true." ¹

Polling suggests the political version has broad reach. In an AP-NORC survey of 4,173 adults conducted from December 1 to 23, 2021, 32 percent agreed that a group of people is trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants for electoral gain, and 29 percent said they were concerned that immigration is causing native-born Americans to lose economic, political and cultural influence. ³ About 17 percent agreed with both. ³ Respondents scoring highest on a conspiratorial-thinking scale were likelier than Republicans generally to hold the belief, 42 percent against 26 percent. ³

Our view: arguing about immigration levels, borders and assimilation is ordinary democratic politics, and treating every such argument as the Great Replacement is both wrong and useless. The conspiracy theory is the added claim of a directed plot with an author. The two organizations cited here draw the line at the same place, the ADL by noting that Camus's original demographic argument was not antisemitic and the AJC by defining the conspiracy through the words "intentional effort, led by Jews." ¹²

The ADL recorded 9,354 antisemitic incidents in the United States in 2024, up from 8,873 in 2023, in a report published April 22, 2025. ⁴ In its survey of extremist killings, the ADL counted 17 murders in seven incidents in 2023, attributed all of them to right-wing extremists, and tied 15 of the 17 to perpetrators or accomplices with white supremacist connections. ⁵

The words you'll hear

The Great Replacement. The claim that native white populations are being replaced in their own countries by non-white immigrants, popularized by Renaud Camus in a 2011 essay. ¹

White genocide. The older white supremacist conspiracy theory of an engineered destruction of the white race, which the replacement idea was folded into. ¹

The fourteen words. The white supremacist slogan "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children," which the ADL identifies as the movement's rallying cry and a close echo of replacement rhetoric. ¹

"Jews will not replace us." The chant at the University of Virginia the night before the August 2017 Unite the Right rally, and the clearest statement of who the American version blames. ¹²

Identitarian movement. The European white nationalist movement that has promoted the theory, with Martin Sellner of Generation Identitaire in Austria among its most vocal promoters. ¹